Late Polls

A lot of mixed polling today but most of the variance is surely explained by variance in methodology in these different polls. Nate Silver has a post out this afternoon on the cellphone effect where simply lists all the national polls and shows who calls cell phones and who doesn't. The difference in their results is pretty striking on its face.

The polling is really a bit mixed in terms of the overall direction things seem to be moving and requires a lot of interpretation. The ABC/WP tracker moves from Obama +9 to Obama +11 and has Obama at 54%. 95% of Obama supporters in this poll say they will definitely vote for him and another 3% say they are unlikely to change their minds. IF this poll is an accurate snapshot, McCain cannot win. But that's a big "if."

The Pew poll came out with a final national poll showing Obama up by 6 and at 52%. This is a much narrower reading than Pew's poll a week ago though Pew still has a big spread in the registered voter reading (Obama +11). For whatever reason, their likely voter screen is getting a different mix than before. Again though, even in the most generous reading here, McCain is far behind.

The CBS tracker has Obama up by 13 (holding steady) and, like the ABC/WP tracker, they have Obama at 54%. Finally, USAToday/Gallup has a full national poll out tonight that has Obama up by 11 and at 53% nationally. Since it is USAToday, they'll probably have a pretty neat graphic to go with the headline in the morning ... so look for that.

Just a few late state polls out today:

Illinois (Rasmussen) - Obama +22
Pennsylvania (Muhlenberg) - Obama +6
Pennsylvania (PPP) - Obama +8
Pennsylvania (Rasmussen) - Obama +6
Virginia (PPP) - Obama +6

John McCain has his work cut out for him in Illinois. The Pennsylvania and Virginia polls are not the huge leads Obama once had but all have Obama at 52% or higher and still with a cushion. The Rasmussen poll had Obama up by just 4 two days ago in PA. So, all in all, no major news here and no news is good news.