Obama 332 - Romney 206.
Florida is the toughest call of all for me. I am basing my call in part on this brief discussion about Florida from Chuck Todd's Daily Rundown on Saturday:
Chuck points out that the Obama campaign thinks they need to be about 160,000 - 200,000 votes ahead (Dem. reg. vs. GOP reg.) in the early vote by Election Day in order to win Florida. Adam Smith had pointed out they are just over 100,000 ahead on Saturday and it looks like they will fall short of their goal. But where are they today? The Miami Herald reports that Dems are now about 167,000 votes ahead ... in a report posted at 11AM on Monday. They're right in that zone that Chuck Todd suggested they needed to be. Florida is going to be close. But I'll bet on the Obama turnout machine to carry him over the line. Regardless, the map above does not make Florida a must-win for Obama. I am pretty confident about Ohio at this point. I think Romney's last-minute Pennsylvania gambit was the white flag of surrender in Ohio. But hey, you want to see how strong Obama's position is with Ohio? Let's take the map above and assume I'm wrong about Florida (decent chance) and I'm wrong about Virginia (smaller chance). And then assume I'm wrong about ... Pennsylvania (not a chance!). Without Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania ... Obama wins with 270 electoral votes. At that point, Romney would still need to win some other Obama state. No wonder Nate Silver's final run of his model has Obama as a 92% bet to win. Sam Wang says Nate is too conservative. He gives Obama a 98.2% chance of victory.
That's 1.8% of pure scary.
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I'm guessing 290 for Obama (Virginia and Florida). Sabato gets to the same number, although in a profoundly crazy way: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/
So you're giving Obama Iowa can Colorado but not Virginia. If we think about this as a sort of conveyor belts of states slipping off Obama's tally as the national vote moves towards Romney, I would put Colorado and and Iowa in Romney's column before Virginia. Virginia was closer to the national vote in 2008 than any other state (I think). I think that remains true this year.
What about the children.....
Ummm. I think I nailed it.
Yes you did! MSNBC will offer you a show soon.
Bravo, Larry, bravo. Well done!
Wow. You are one fine political scientist and handsome too!
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