It appears my prediction of a very modest to zero bounce was incorrect.
Obama now leads by 4 points in the Gallup and Reuters tracking polls and by 2 in the Rasmussen tracking poll. That's a significant shift when you consider that some of the data in these tracking polls is still from before Obama's speech.
Nate Silver estimates this means Obama has been running about 7-9 points ahead nationally in the post-convention polling
Look, this is called a bounce for a reason. It bounces up and then comes back down. But sometimes it doesn't come all the way back down and you'd surely rather spend your time bouncing from up 1 or so to up 4 or 5 and back than bouncing the other way. And Nate Silver is at least suggesting the bounce could be bigger than a few points. We'll see. But it isn't zero or "very modest."
Saturday, September 8, 2012
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Just for the record, I predicted a bigger bounce. And I am, of course, correct.
Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 4 today ... and that's probably the scariest number of all of them for Romney. If you figure Nate Silver's estimated Republican lean into the Rasmussen number, Obama's lead gets into the high single-digits. And that is about where Nate Silver estimates Obama's lead is in the post-convention polling to this point.
I do think things are going to bounce back in fairly short order and the big question is whether it bounces ALL the way back to a roughly 1 or 2 point lead for Obama or if Obama holds onto any of it.
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