At the risk of resorting to hyperbole, this is a political earthquake that shakes the landscape by putting a divisive culture-war issue front and center.The effect of this on the election is approximately zero. Obama's position was becoming indefensible and so he abandoned it for the principled (and correct) position. His supporters will forgive that it took too long to get here. His detractors will ... continue to detract. The only important thing we've learned today is not to pay attention to Howard Kurtz's punditry. This is no earthquake.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Howard Kurtz
A "political earthquake?" Really?
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3 comments:
I don't know; what about turning off all those evangelicals who were going to vote for him?
Slightly more seriously, I do wonder whether this will have the effect of increasing GOP turnout, which I had been assuming would be pretty low prior to this.
Nah. The type of voter who is likely to be activated by this issue already hates Obama so much, they were planning to vote. Also, which swing states are states where these voters exist in big numbers. Maybe North Carolina, maybe Virginia, possibly Iowa. But I think, overall, the right-wing voter for whom this is an important issue is already planning to vote and I think Obama did at least as much to energize his own liberal base (which is already pretty much energized enough for this point in the race).
Today's 538 seems to support your point: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/gay-marriage-and-the-democratic-base/
tl;dr is independents are closer to Dems, and the only Dem group out of step here (African Americans) he's unlikely to lose.
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