Morning Polls

Everyone settle down! The USA Today poll (McCain +10) was of likely voters and McCain is only up by 4 among registered voters (are we really taking USA Today seriously these days?). Likely voter screens are overly sensitive to short-term enthusiasm (like a convention bounce) and are silly to use at this early point (yeah, it is still early). 4 points is about a normal bounce I think will fade over the coming days. CNN has a new poll out showing the race unchanged since the middle of last week (still tied). I think CNN’s poll understated Obama’s support last week but this one might very, very slightly understate McCain’s support but, whatever, it is probably close.

Rasmussen tracker moved from tied to +1 McCain this morning (Thursday night cycled out of their numbers and Nate Silver had that as being a good night for Obama). The Gallup Tracker numbers show McCain moving from +3 to +5 but I really think that is going to be the near-term crest for him (tomorrow should stay the same or drop – there’s a prediction! You can see if I’m right tomorrow. Go ahead and panic if I’m wrong).

By the end of the week, things should setting into about a tie I think.