tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2325946921914725798.post1452640742613014512..comments2023-11-02T05:18:09.506-07:00Comments on Welcome to 270 Electoral Votes: Where are the Good Pollsters?Larry Beckerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276802060490643458noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2325946921914725798.post-66628950806713168612012-10-12T21:02:03.005-07:002012-10-12T21:02:03.005-07:00There's a few things and maybe I'll write ...There's a few things and maybe I'll write a follow-up post on this. But here's a couple of things:<br /><br />One is track record. Gallup has been pretty bad in recent elections for instance. ARG and Zogby are pollsters that fall into this category.<br /><br />Another thing is live interviewer vs. robo-poll and related to that is whether they call cell phones. Rasmussen and PPP are robo-poll outfits. PPP has a bit of a Democratic lean but I think they've generally been pretty good in recent cycles. I just sort of discount their numbers a small bit. Rasmussen has a fairly strong Republican lean, which would be fine if we could just make that mental adjustment but there's something else wrong with Rasmussen. They weight by party ID which is very problematic.<br /><br />Robo-calling and the cell phone issue are related because it is illegal to call cell phones without a live interviewer. They try to get around this by weighting their sample in some way (Rasmussen uses party ID for one) but this gets very tricky very fast.<br /><br />Finally, I like some of those network pollsters because they tend to use good sample sizes over a short number of nights. Gallup's tracking poll is over a 7-day period. That's problematic.<br /><br />Anyway, those are some initial thoughts on all this.Larry Beckerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276802060490643458noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2325946921914725798.post-46967785103625296332012-10-12T19:30:20.014-07:002012-10-12T19:30:20.014-07:00Good post. I'd love it if you could elaborate,...Good post. I'd love it if you could elaborate, though, on what makes a good poll/polling company vs. a less reliable one. Why do you like the ones you mentioned, in other words? Is it methodology, sample size, etc? In other words, going fwd., it'd be great to learn a little re: how to differentiate between a suspect vs. a solid poll, as well as I can identify a solid baseball metaphor, from one based on "sport."Jonathan Kellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10922311537364898170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2325946921914725798.post-56926165608276703022012-10-12T19:29:09.074-07:002012-10-12T19:29:09.074-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jonathan Kellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10922311537364898170noreply@blogger.com